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| | | | US Election Unspun  | Anthony Zurcher North America Correspondent | | | | |
| | Hello. Donald Trump and Joe Biden both continued their march toward a presidential showdown with comfortable victories in the Michigan primaries yesterday. There are hints of weakness for both, however.
Amid a surprisingly high turnout, about 13% of Democrats opted for “uncommitted” instead of Biden, mostly to protest his pro-Israel stance during the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Nikki Haley pulled a quarter of the vote against Trump. Read North America editor Sarah Smith’s analysis of the results here. In a close race – particularly in Michigan – every vote counts.
Plus, scroll down to find out what (if anything) Republicans like about Biden.
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| Walking tightropes at the border | | | |
|  Biden has faced increasing pressure to act on the US-Mexico border. Credit: Reuters
It’s the first major engagement of the 2024 general election campaign. On Thursday, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be in Texas, holding duelling events along the US-Mexico border (327 miles apart, because Texas is really big).
Even Biden says the situation at the border is a “crisis”, as processing facilities have been swamped by a record-setting influx of undocumented migrants. Social services in the major US cities where the migrants settle have also been overwhelmed.
For Trump, the trip is an opportunity to hit Biden on an issue that has been a central focus of his career in the Republican Party. His hardline views have been controversial, but he’s betting that the political ground has shifted since 2020.
For Biden, it’s damage control. Recent polling shows that immigration, a top issue for voters, is where he gets his poorest marks.
 Migrants cross the Rio Grande in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Credit: Christian Torres/Anadolu via Getty Images
Democrats think they can turn the tables, however, by blaming Trump and other Republicans for blocking immigration reform.
The White House has hinted that Biden will announce tougher border security and asylum measures soon, which would represent a marked shift in strategy after three years of essentially wishing the problem away.
The takeaway: Biden’s challenge is to convince the public he is better on the border – without angering his liberal, pro-immigration base.
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| Quote of the week "Conservatives are now operating in a hostile environment... we essentially need a bigger bazooka." Former Prime Minister Liz Truss spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland on Friday, where she blamed “vested interests of the establishment” for her short time in office. | | | |
| | | | I wrote about how CPAC turned into a de facto auditioning session to be the Republican pick for vice president | | | | | | | |
| | | | An Alabama court ruling that embryos are children has divided Christians – and could have political ramifications. | | | | | | | |
| | | | The inside story of the decades-long drama surrounding Trump's Aberdeenshire golf course, which drew objections from locals. | | | | | | | |
| Ask Anthony I have had a sneaking suspicion for a while that political polls are becoming less relevant. I wonder if the nature of polling is changing, are they adapting or using the same old methods? – Molly Winkelman Political polls generate lots of headlines and interest, but political opinion polling has become more difficult – and more expensive.
Americans are becoming harder to reach. The days of a landline telephone in every home are long gone.
Some pollsters include mobile phones in their surveys, but those numbers are more costly to obtain and, because of federal law, require actual people to dial rather than automated dialling services. Even then, not everyone answers or is willing to talk.
Online surveys are a cheaper alternative, but they can present challenges in creating a representative sample.
Then there’s the accuracy of polls. You may recall, Molly, that Democrats outperformed the survey predictions in the 2022 midterm elections, as did Trump in the 2020 and 2016 presidential races. All of this underlines the fact that polling is both an art and a science.
Pollsters have to figure out not just what the general public believes, but what the electorate will look like in any given year. That requires a series of assumptions and calculations – ones that even the best in the business don’t always get right.
Do you have a question for Anthony? Send us your queries here. | | | |
| | | | Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson joins us to talk commercial space ventures. | | | | | | | |
| CPAC, the annual right-wing political jamboree, is known for its outspoken, colourful crowd of attendees and speakers - which this year included Steve Bannon, Lara Trump, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele and more.
We asked ticket holders whether they could think of anything nice to say about Biden, and if there was anything they disliked about Trump. Some of their answers may surprise you.
 A small taste of the Trump-themed items on sale at CPAC. Credit: Aaron Schwartz/NurPhoto via Getty Images. | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Is there anything you want to know about the election campaign? You can email me to let me know what you think are the big issues. And why not forward the newsletter to friends? They can sign up here.
Thanks for reading!
- Anthony | | | |
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