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| | | | US Election Unspun  | Anthony Zurcher North America Correspondent | | | | |
| | Hello from Washington, and welcome to US Election Unspun, the newsletter that cuts out the noise surrounding the presidential race. In this weekly email, I'll give you my thoughts on the state of play.
We're waiting to see how Joe Biden chooses to retaliate for the weekend attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers.
While there's a lull in the presidential campaign, there's a very real possibility the US could be pulled deeper into a Middle East war it has tried to keep from spreading. North America editor Sarah Smith explains the political stakes.
And scroll down to find out why Taylor Swift might have a say in November's result.
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| How Biden-Trump 2.0 is set to play out | | | |
|  Both candidates will bring their records - and their baggage - to the contest. Image: Reuters
Donald Trump versus Joe Biden. It’s the presidential rematch few Americans say they want.
But after votes in Iowa and New Hampshire cemented Trump as the dominant Republican front-runner, it’s the election we seemed destined to get. While Trump’s last rival, Nikki Haley, may take offence, it’s time to start seriously thinking about this Trump-Biden sequel.
I’ve taken my swing at it, with the help of some veteran political insiders.
 Nikki Haley on the campaign trail, still hoping to raise a glass to a successful run as the Republican candidate. Image: Reuters/Brian Snyder
Both Trump and Biden have presidential records to defend. Both have clear weaknesses. Both are well into their golden years, where a stumble, miscue or worse could raise new health concerns.
The economy seems destined to be the dominant issue, as it usually is in presidential races. How the apparent disconnect between brightening economic indicators and continuing public pessimism resolves will be pivotal.
Both candidates will also highlight policies that motivate their electoral base. For Biden, it’s abortion. Trump will focus on immigration. As in war, the terrain of an election often determines the winner.
The takeaway: It seems destined to be a bare-knuckle brawl of a campaign. And with nine months until voting, it will be an endurance test – for the candidates and us all. Buckle up.
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| Quote of the week "There he was... he was like nothing - like an emperor without clothes." Columnist E Jean Carroll describes seeing Donald Trump in a Manhattan courtroom, after a jury decided the former president should pay her $83.3m (£65m) for defamation. | | | |
| | | | The deadly attack on a US base in Jordan presented Biden with a dilemma. All responses pose political risk, Sarah Smith writes. | | | | | | | |
| | | | Trump's legal woes are both a boon and a bane for him. They harm his public image, but activate his base, explains Sam Cabral. | | | | | | | |
| | | | My colleagues Nick Robinson and Amol Rajan explore how politicos and CEOs in London are reacting to the idea of a second Trump term. | | | | | | | |
| Ask Anthony Why does everyone assume/accept that the “winner” of the first few primaries becomes the candidate for a party, especially since those contests are in small states? - Jean-Pierre Kingsley It doesn’t make sense. It’s not really fair. But ever since the nomination process moved out of the hands of party bosses in the 1960s, that’s the way it goes.
Success in the primary process is all about momentum – and the campaign cash it generates. No dough, no go. That’s why Donald Trump’s comfortable victories in Iowa and New Hampshire quickly cleared the Republican field of everyone but Nikki Haley.
Because of the outsized power a handful of early state voters wield, being at the top of the calendar is a coveted privilege. Joe Biden tried, with some success, to change things for Democrats this year – reasoning that small, less diverse states shouldn’t pick their nominee. So this year, South Carolina goes first. Its Democratic primary, on Saturday, will be an important test of enthusiasm and turnout for Biden, particularly among the black and young voters he will need in November’s general election.
Do you have a question for Anthony? Send us your queries here. | | | |
| | | | Ex-White House press secretary Sean Spicer explains what his old boss will be thinking. | | | | | | | |
| Some Democrats are pinning their hopes on Taylor Swift to bolster Joe Biden's re-election chances. A recent poll for Redfield & Wilton Strategies suggested 18% of voters are "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a candidate backed by the pop singer.
The question is: will she choose to burnish the Democrats' Reputation, or instead be an Anti-Hero?
 Will Swifties have the power to swing the election? Image: ARAH YENESEL/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Is there anything you want to know about the election campaign? You can email me to let me know what you think are the big issues. And why not forward the newsletter to friends? They can sign up here.
Thanks for reading!
- Anthony | | | |
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